Business modelling tools can be used for forecasting but also to model as closely as possible a real world situation. Examples include modelling delays and their impact on performance (AML) and hence the financial consequences of performance through the performance regime. To complete the model, however, it is important to ascertain the impact on revenue as a company’s perceived performance changes.
Other examples include train service planning and determining the share of airport passengers using rail as opposed to other modes. AS&A have experience of a wide range of modelling techniques: the highest priority, however, is to keep sight of the issues at hand and ensuring that the model replicates the real world business problem rather than merely ensuring the best statistical fit to data.
AS&A was asked to develop a decision support system to match trains to passenger demand. The key factors in play were the restrictions of certain rolling stock on routes, either due to the clearances available on a line or due to agreement with transport authorities over which units could and could not be used for the service. A further complication was that some routes required first class capacity whilst most did not.
The task of assigning trains to the timetable had previously been undertaken manually. AS&A was asked to develop a decision support system which would automate this laborious task.